This write up provides a detailed explanation of three effective ways of making profits from sports betting, these methods have been proven and tested both in theory and in practical.

They are established on complete statistical beliefs and if you carry out some findings online, you’ll discover that they have been put to use for nearly 10 years.

You will also discover that betting companies know and restrict players who implement these tactics.

But you can still make some fortune for yourself before you get hit by their hammer.

Some of these tactics are also not so easy for the bookmakers to identify. This write up explains the difference between these methods and highlight the advantage and disadvantage of each of the method

Matched Betting

The concept behind matched betting is to make arbitrage bets through the use of promotions and bonuses offer by some bookmakers and making an arbitrage bet on a sharp bookmaker or exchange on the other.

Matched betting techniques is offered by many bookmakers. It is the safest types of betting, but it also offer the smallest profit.

Disadvantages of Matched Betting

  1. Over time, the number of promotion reduces, and this also reduces your potential profit. 
  2. As it is common with any arbitrage system, bookmakers can easily noticed this, hence you will get restricted quicker. As an individual, I have no wish to waste my accounts on this system.

Since your profit is dependent on the promotions, you will make very little profit

In general, matched betting offers a great way to make some money on sports betting if you are beginning with small amounts of money. However, if you are really interested in making some good money, it is advisable that you save some money and use bigger sums to start value betting.

You can also take advantage of signup bonuses to increase your capital when starting out.

Arbitrage Betting

In arbitrage betting technique, we use only our money to bet, instead of promotions as is done in matched betting to bet on all possible results of a game when the total odds on these possible results is big enough to guarantee a profit regardless of the result.

Generally, we place arbitrage bet on the easy bookmakers on one end, and also on the exchanges or the sharps on the other end to complete the arbitrage.

The possible Profit we can expect to make for every arbitrage bet is generally around 1%

Advantages of Arbitrage Betting

  1. The major advantage of arbitrage betting is that it doesn’t have any real risk attached to it. Even though the arbitrage betting techniques appears to be free of risk, it is not that simple practically and we see why in the disadvantages.

Disadvantages of Arbitrage Betting

  1. There is the possible risks of the odds getting reduced after one has placed a part of the bet
  2. The bookmakers cancelling the bets as a result of real mistakes ( they wrongly priced their odds, however their terms and conditions gives them the power to cancel it)
  3.  The bet is cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances (e.g. terrible weather) these events would leave you unprotected on one end of the arbitrage. Suppose our expected ROI per bet is 1%, we would be required to place a bet of $100 to gain $1, if any of the problems mentioned above occurs and we lost our $100 stake,  we will need to make 100 x $100 to recover that!
  4. The other possible disadvantage is that bookmakers can easily notice the arbitrage bettors, since it requires the odds to be very high on both sides of the game. Therefore, one gets restricted faster. Limiting the possible profits.
  5. One other disadvantage of this system is that you need to share out your capital among numerous bookmakers to leverage on potential the guarantee bets
  6. Lastly, since arbitrage betting technique requires all the games outcome to be extremely high, they do not occur as often as value bets, minimizing the potential profits. Remember that arbitrage betting system provides an average turnover of 1%, we need a high profit to make some good income.

Value Betting

In the simplest meaning, value bet involves taking only a side of an arbitrage bet

Rather than staking on all outcomes, we only stake on one outcome e.g. Away team to win.

On a general note, value bet involves staking a bet on a bigger odds, than its principal possibility.

Therefore one can make use an arbitrage’s soft side to stake a value bet, however, there are other ways of spotting them.

  1. This write up provides a practical example of a value bet using coin toss
  2. This write up gives an in-depth explanation on how we can take advantage of the different odds offer by different bookmakers to spot value bets.
  3. This write up shows you a real example of a value bet identified on a bookmaker on a Premier League game between Manchester City- Chelsea.

The major advantages of value bets

  1. They have higher rate of occurrence compared to arbitrage bets, therefore we can get larger sample size of bets and more profit
  2. The average percentage of the value bets, and hence there is higher percentage returns for value bets compared to arbitrage bets
  3. They are not so easy to spot by bookmarkers compared to arbitrage bets.

The major disadvantages of value betting

Value betting have higher risk potential compare to arbitrage bets, which in principle (but not in actual practice) is free of risk.

This reason for this higher risk potential is because one can only stake on one possible game outcome, hence there is higher variance. (This write up and the video explains what variance is and how it is connected to value betting).

Let’s take an example: if we take a bet of 2.0 odds, our anticipated winning ratio is 50% every time. Any events can occur in the short run, for example we can lose 10 coin tosses in succession.

But when spread over a larger sample size, for instance 5000 tosses, the number of heads and tails will be evenly distributed around 50/50

Therefore in the term, your result will be hugely affected by variance and swings.

Reducing the Risks of Value Betting

Even though value betting contains some high risk, the great news is that the risks can be minimized through:

  1. Having your risk spread over a large bet sample size
  2. Appropriate bet sizing as explained in this article and video
  3. Taking measures to minimize your variance (here the most essential step is picking lower odds, which gives a higher possibility of a team winning)

Additional Benefits and Downsides of Arbitrage Betting vs Value Betting

All these strategies definitely sounds wonderful, definitely I can make a fortune using them. No, not so easy, bookmakers often restrict winning bettors.

Which strategy is best for me?

It totally depends risk- profit goal

However at AssuredBets.com, we emphasize value betting as this returns the possible biggest profit among the three strategies while still allowing us to control our risks.

This is the strategy we practice, and this is why we developed an advanced tool to help your recognize value bets

A prominent disadvantage of the three methods as is applicable to most winning systems is that the soft betting companies will restrict you, if you keep winning, limiting your earning potential.

But I would like to say that this does not in any way prevent you from making good profits from those bookmakers before they restrict you.

In addition, when you get to this point, if you have enough capital to do so, you can keep on staking on value bet using the Asian bookmakers.

These bookmakers accept higher bet sizes and they don’t restrict winning punters.

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