The topic of discussion here is ‘value betting’. It is strategy known to be riskier and more complex than sure betting, but definitely has some benefits as well.
Value betting is very much similar to sure betting as it allows the player to have an edge over bookmaker, which as a result can be source of constant profitability.
What is a bookmaker’s margin?
Let’s discuss in detail how bookmaking works.
Bookmakers keep a certain margin over each bet to make a living. For example, 2 people bet on a coin with two sides, tail and head. In a regular scenario if two people bet $1 dollar each that they can guess the top side of the coin, then in such scenario there will be one winner and one loser. Winner will get $2 and loser will not get anything.
Nevertheless, if a bookmaker is involved in a bet, then he will have equal chances for each side, for example, 1.5 on tails and 1.5 on heads. In this situation, winner does not get all $2, but only gets $1.5, and the $0.5 goes to the booker, which is also called as bookmaker’s margin. This is their main source earning.
Now, let’s take an example of a situation where bookmaker pays all the bet money as a prize, the chances of any event should connect in a certain way:
1/K1 + 1/K2 + … + 1/Kn = 1
are the odds for each of
n opposite event outcomes – for
Each odd must equal to 1 divided by the probability of a corresponding outcome.
Though, if we input a real line for bookmaker and compute the addition of probabilities, the answer is not 1. Let’s take Bwin’s chances for Chelsea – Manchester United fixture as a sample.
1/1.95 + 1/3.3 + 1/3.75 = 1.0825 ( > 1 !!! )
(1.0825 - 1) * 100% = 8.25% margin
That is why bookmaker put their chances in a manner that allows them explicitly more benefit than players. Bookmakers decrease their chances by including their revenue. Probability success is always on bookmaker’s side, with irresistible majority up to 98% of all bet players losing their cash in longer period.
What is a valuebet?
From the explanation of margin, each bookmaker makes effort to assess the chances of possible outcomes and therefore target lower chances. It occurs when the bookmaker makes error and fix a max odd instead.
Examining coin tossing example, let’s undertake that bookmaker make’s up his mind that heads has more chances to occur and set his chances at 2.1 on heads and on tails at 1.75. This is explicitly incorrect as chances of both outcomes is 50%, it will be in his favor to bet on heads.
If a player place 100 bets similar like this which is betting 1 dollar every time, his winning probability is 50%.
Consequently, the players winning will equal to 100 х 50% х 2.1 = 105 dollars. Supposedly there are maximum valuebets like this then player’s profit is 5%. As per the law of probability players chances are better therefore his bank will have positive impact in longer period.
To explain this knowledge, let’s take an example of dice. The dice has a fix probability of any number appearing is 1 out of 6. The rules for two players are are set as: The first one who has a number can throw the dice. If he won, he earns five dollars from the other player. If he lost, then he pays the other with 1 dollar.
The rules give a clean outcome that player one will not win anything and will lose all his money.
Changing the rule by, let the first player guess the number that second will through, if he right then he wins 7 dollars and if he incorrect he will lose 1 dollar and give it to the other. Now this set of rules will make the second player penniless.
The below inequality is made true by valuebet:
K * P > 1
is an odd and
is the real probability of this outcome.
Approaches to find valuebets
find valuebets, one must first evaluate the true probability of event outcomes.
After which when one knows the real probabilities then one needs to evaluate
the odds that makes the disparity
K * P > 1 true.
It is not simple to assess the real probability outcome in sports such as a football fixture.
For predicting fixtures and match result bookmakers recruit a whole department of specialized employees for it.
Two cardinal techniques of predicting the results are:
- Logical: Study of team’s capability, recent numbers, team players, analysis of weather conditions and home ground, moon stage, Mercury positioning compare to Saturn, inside information about match fixing and many other factors.
- Numerical: Based on the research of number analytical staff and their computations. Their conjecture is near to true outcome, although the real outcome is still going to occur, but it is usually between their predictions.
The first technical is commonly used by the bookmaker. They attempt to utilize all the information they have to analyze the outcome of specific teams and their chances to win. There are skilled people who can also analyze the outcome of team based their previous performance just as close to the bookmakers. The logical method although requires deep knowledge regarding the topic and it cannot be computerized.
The second technical is based on numbers and facts. If one hold odds from large sum of bookmakers, one can hold compute the bookmaker’s margin for every odd. One can then utilize this information to compute how the bookmakers can analyzed their probability. Lastly, one can compute the mean value – and that is usually a closest prediction, as its based on the consensus of number of analysts. This technique may not be as precise to bunch of people; however it can be put in a systematic manner.
Valuebets utilized numerical technical to find the outcomes.
Utilizing Surebet to discover valuebets
A bookmaker’s surebet has intriguing feature. If one undertakes total bets of a specific surebet are made by one bookmaker and compute the margin, one will obtain a negative digit.
Let’s examine one case of surebets.
+ 1/3.3 + 1/3.97 = 0.9897 ( < 1 )
- 1) * 100% = -1.03%
The above calculation shows that minimum one bets in the surebet is overvalued. The are more than one valuebets than in any profitable surebet. Essentially, this overvalued bet has surely made the surebet and further surebets are utilized for covering this one.
In this condition if one has record of found surebets for same match, one can estimate which one has triggered the surebet to appear together. For example, if every surebet for a similar event comprise of a bet for the win of a similar team placed by similar bookmaker, it is obvious that it is overvalued surebet
Advantages and disadvantages of utilizing valuebets
Valuebets have pros and cons than the surebets
- Less Bets: When opting for surebets, one needs to fix bets on every surebet shoulders, and if one fails to fix minimum one, then one can jeopardize all their bets. While performing with valuebets, one needs to place one bet per valuebet, this reduces the menace of not betting on others.
- Less accounts with Bookmakers: To perform with surebets, one requires to have minimum two to three accounts separate companies and if there are more than it is much better. Valuebets requires only one accounts
- Attitude of player is normal. While playing surebet, the players is coerced to follow the system and fix dependent bets A bookmaker may discover it unusual that players bets more like $5.43 on 13.5 total in fixture example Honduras – Gundelupa. Valuebets allows to bet any amount which is why is less doubtful.
- In context, valuebet is more moneymaking than surebet. Assumed that every surebet has an overvalued bet and holdup bets, each player bets on every one of them not because they are profitable. Player can also opt for insurance, but it is huge expense. If overvalued bets are discovered and used wisely then one can make good money since bookmaker cut is unpaid.
- One can not win if bets are low. When playing with surebets, one must make set profit from every surebet. When playing valuebet, one can lose a bet. This technical encourages consistent playing design with great sum of bets. To bring down the danger, make small bets than big ones.