The odds of the team winning are set with the laws of probability. A bookie or a bookmaker is the one who sets the odds for all the participating teams. Here the bookie is setting the odds for the match between Liverpool and Arsenal in the upcoming Premier League. In theory, the odds will be something like this. Home team winning 3.00 (33.33%), Draw between the teams 3.0 (33.33%) and the guest team will win 3.0 (33.33%). This is the solution if you divide 100 by 3, which is when we assume that every event has the same chance of taking place. But this is not the final probabilities. We will work further on these events now.

Now, it is time for traders to do their job. Traders or compilers work on a huge amount of data and compile the final numbers. This information includes the weather conditions, players’ presence or absence, players’ injuries, etc. Traders use complex algorithms to calculate these numbers because it is humanly impossible to generate these manually.

So the final compiled TRUE odd are. Home team wins 2.00 (50%), Draw between teams 4.00 (25%), Guest team wins 4.00 (25%). “There have never been such odds at a bookmaker”, an experienced bettor would surely notice. And he won’t be wrong.

Because this is where a bookie earns his profit. The ones that you bet on are the ACTUAL odds, their odds are found after a bookmaker has “put” his margin. So the odds that are presented to us, the final odds are 1.90-3.50-4.25.

How do bookies make money?

The foremost and the easiest way is to evaluate the market in such a way that represents that untrue value, which is the true odds of the outcome. The outcome of the above-mentioned three-way market is exactly this same thing. Similarly, the same laws are applied to the two-way markets. Let’s use the same example as above at 1.57-2.35. Now evaluate the margin again. The formula that is applied here is (1/over odds)*100 + (1/under odds)*100.

Mathematically, (1/1.57)*100 + (1/ 2.35)*100 = 63.69 + 42.55 =  106.24. Here the calculated margin is 6.24%. This is the profit that the bookie will earn regardless of whatever the income is.

However, the bookie is not satisfied with such a small portion of the profit. So in this example, most of the bettors will support the Reds to win at the pre-game odds. Hence, the compilers will decrease the prize money on home wins and will increase the prize money of the guest wins. This way they are tempting the bettors to bet in favor of arsenal.

The real art of odds setting is very precise and only experienced bookmakers known how to trick people in making them think that they are inside the bet range. And making a good amount of profit at the same time.

A better, on the other side, should be well versed in odd math, so that he can calculate and pick the correct odds.

How do you create odds?

How to create odds and why is this useful for a better? In Spain, on June 1st, 2019, Liverpool bagged their sixth Champions League trophy after a massive 2-0 win against Spurs. In Baku, a week before, Chelsea won the Europa League title by beating the Arsenal by 4-1. And now in 2018 to 2019, both the title holders are going to play against each other on august 15th for Europe’s Super Cup.

So let us try and calculate the odds for the upcoming European Super Cup. Learning to calculate the odds will greatly benefit you against the bookmakers.

In the previous seasons, these two teams have played against each other thrice. Twice in the Premier League and once in the League Cup. So now let us run checks on these games.

Game number one was held on September 26th for the League cup. The score was 2-1 and Chelsea was the winner. Chelsea won even though the odds were against them (1.85-3.72-4.07).

Three days later on September 29th, the same teams play each other at the Stamford Bridge. It was a draw and the odds were 2.78-3.48-2.56.

The last game was held on April 14th and the Reds won without having to put up a fight with 2-0. Pre-game odds for this game were 1.73-3.77-5.18.

As mentioned above, bookmakers consider past games. And according to the games above, the Reds were always considered the favorite. They did have a better team and there usually proved the rights correct. So let’s start by assuming that Reds are bookies favorite. So we normally would assign them a price of 2.00. But we would not do that today. We are positive that the Reds would be much stronger in the next season in an attempt to win the Premier League title.

Chelsea, on the other side, has lost to Eden Hazard already and the team’s manager Maurizio Sarri will go on to coach Juventus. Right now, it is not possible to determine who will take his position or who would replace Hazard.

This match is a pre-season match, hence the key factors that will determine the final score would be the willingness of each team. So the odds that we set will be 1.70-3.50-5.00. And in the special market (over/under 2.5) would be 1.70-2.10, here we are considering that in such games both games aim at outscoring the opposite team. So after this analysis, we will set both the teams at “Both Teams To Score” option.

Evaluating the odds will not only help you in figuring out the odds but will also help you understand the offered odds value!

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